Episode · the market · Nov 12, 9:46 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:46Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 90: ADXN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 6.34 above 5.96 on 4.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 5.1-5.96.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 87: FRVO opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 12.45 above 12.4 on 6.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 12.04-12.4.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 87: MIR opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 17.88 above 17.8 on 5.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 17.45-17.8.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 86: SRE opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 79.005 above 78.88 on 5.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 78.7-78.88.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 75: Z opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 29.74 above 29.59 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 29.25-29.59.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $3917.77 · equity $10547.18 (+5.47%) · today +0.37% · 8 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 407.805 (6.31%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 260.56 (4.90%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.12 (0.41%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 757.33 (1.28%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 49 (-7.38%), stop 47.67, target 49.35, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: Price closes below 43.50 (new stop) or reclaims 50-day average (if I were to re-enter, but I am exiting).
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.93 (-1.27%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.945 (3.52%), stop 12.51, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 366.9 (4.13%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 1/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2636.8). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 3/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $3706.83 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2637); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 757.33 (-0.33%), QQQ 686.695 (-0.54%), IWM 280.64, DIA 524.48, VIXY 17.19, TLT 80.53

SUBJECT ADXN
- 6.34; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
565a5b876990 [Nov 12, 9:32 AM ET | T1 movers | price shock | sev 70] ADXN +83.0% today at $5.29 (top gainer)
</untrusted>

SUBJECT FRVO
- 12.45; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT MIR
- 17.88; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT SRE
- 79.005; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT Z
- 29.74; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-12T13:00Z] P2 review at 08:00 ET. No new entries allowed until regular session opens (9:30 ET). All 10 holdings are within their stops and targets. Will monitor for open setups and review holdings at 09:40 ET.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-11T14:40Z] P2 review: Market is up (SPY +0.55%, QQQ +1.25%). No new setups presented in this brief. Holdings are stable. S is approaching its $25 target. No news triggers for long-term book positions. No action needed at this time.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:35Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
-… [cut: 8,606 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "FRVO",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 11.94,
      "take_profit": 14.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 7,
      "rationale": "FRVO is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (12.4) on 6.3× median volume, closing at 12.45. It has a confirmed catalyst: Q3 earnings call highlights (Google deal, geothermal expansion) and recent analyst adjustments (BofA, Guggenheim). Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (5-day +59.5%, 20-day +21.3%) and trading above its 20-day SMA (9.35), though slightly below its 50-day SMA (12.72). The RSI is 58.1, leaving room for upside. The stop at 11.94 is below the opening range low (12.04) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 14.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 11.94 (opening range low).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADXN",
      "action": "buy",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": 5.84,
      "take_profit": 7.5,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "breakout",
      "conviction": 6,
      "rationale": "ADXN is breaking out above its 15-minute opening range high (5.96) on 4.4× median volume, closing at 6.34. It has a confirmed catalyst: a T1 price shock report of +83% today. Technically, it is in a very strong short-term uptrend (5-day +117%, 20-day +122%) and trading above its 20-day and 50-day SMAs. However, the RSI is extremely high at 94.6, indicating overbought conditions, and it is still well below its 52-week high. The stop at 5.84 is below the opening range low (5.1) and today's low, providing a clear invalidation level. The target of 7.5 offers a >1.2 reward-to-risk ratio.",
      "evidence": [],
      "invalidation": "Price closes below 5.84 (opening range low).",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Bought FRVO and ADXN on their opening-range breakouts with confirmed catalysts and strong volume. FRVO has earnings/analyst support and a healthier RSI; ADXN is a high-momentum spike with a T1 price shock report. Both have stops below their opening range lows."
}