Episode · the market · Nov 9, 11:47 AM

NOW: 2026-11-09T16:47Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 16:43Z setup, P1, salience 89: HUBB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 443.1 above 439.49 on 7.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 435.14-439.49.
- 16:43Z setup, P1, salience 87: CAG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 15.24 above 15.19 on 5.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 15.04-15.19.
- 16:43Z setup, P1, salience 68: TXT opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 85.03 above 84.9 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 84.67-84.9.
- 16:43Z setup, P1, salience 68: STLD opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 228.05 above 226.55 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 224.54-226.55.
- 16:43Z setup, P1, salience 67: DKS new session high: closed 147.18 above 146.84 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 143.67-143.67.
- 16:44Z setup, P1, salience 95: QLYS opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 198.52 above 194.53 on 5× its median minute volume today; opening range 190.75-194.53.
- 16:44Z setup, P1, salience 86: MDLN new session high: closed 40.47 above 40.37 on 8.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 39.84-40.08.
- 16:44Z setup, P1, salience 73: OKLO new session high: closed 26.515 above 26.41 on 3.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 22.8-23.79.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 79: GEHC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 83.055 above 82.91 on 4.2× its median minute volume today; opening range 82.5-82.91.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 66: WRBY new session high: closed 31.11 above 30.93 on 2.3× its median minute volume today; opening range 25.73-28.62.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 62: REGN opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 920.31 above 919 on 2.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 902.23-919.
- 16:45Z setup, P1, salience 62: THC opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 293.15 above 292.46 on 2× its median minute volume today; opening range 290.27-292.46.
- 16:47Z setup, P1, salience 87: DAR new session high: closed 52.84 above 52.66 on 6.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 50-50.59.
- 16:47Z setup, P1, salience 78: WSM new session high: closed 261.495 above 261.02 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 259.34-259.95.
- 16:47Z setup, P1, salience 77: CPNG new session high: closed 16.165 above 16.15 on 4× its median minute volume today; opening range 15.78-16.11.
- 16:47Z setup, P1, salience 73: O opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 59.5 above 59.35 on 3.4× its median minute volume today; opening range 59.13-59.35.
- 16:47Z setup, P1, salience 66: IWN new session high: closed 215.43 above 215.19 on 2.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 213.2-213.95.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $239.54 · equity $9973.98 (-0.26%) · today +0.72% · 11 stocks, 0 options positions
- FROG: 24 shares at 103.73, now 104.725 (0.91%), stop 99.51, target 108, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: FROG is the only setup in a clear long-term uptrend (price above SMA50/200, 52-week high within 2%). It broke above the 15-min opening range (102.30) on 6.9x median volume, closing at 103.11. While news is absent, the technical structure is strong: SMA20/50 at ~93.50 provide support, and the 20-day range (74-103.75) shows a steady climb. The stop at the opening range low (99.51) is 3.5% below entry, offering a tight risk profile with room to the next resistance near 108.00 (+4.7%). Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 99.51.
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 389.58 (1.61%), stop 312.05, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- NBIS: 10 shares at 136.96, now 140.015 (2.29%), stop 129.47, target 145, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: NBIS broke above its 15-min opening range (134.80) on 7x median volume, closing at 135.70. It has a T1 anomaly spike (+2.99% in 5 min) and upcoming earnings (Benzinga report). However, the daily trend is down (price 16% below SMA50, RSI 36.9), making this a speculative bounce play. The stop at the opening range low (129.48) is 4.5% below entry. The target of 145.00 offers a 6.8% reward. Caution is warranted due to the lack of a confirmed catalyst beyond the price shock and the downtrend. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 129.48.
- PRAX: 5 shares at 304.11, now 305.76 (0.26%), stop 281.67, target 340, multi_day horizon, opened 9:56 AM ET. Thesis: PRAX broke its 15-min opening range (281.67-289.50) on 5.4x volume, closing at 300.72. The move is backed by a T1 SEC filing (8-K) for results of operations, providing a fundamental catalyst for the surge. The price action shows strong momentum (+3.8% from OR high to close) with heavy volume support. The stop at the opening range low (281.67) is 6.3% below entry, offering a defined risk with significant upside to the next resistance level around 340. This is a high-conviction momentum play driven by a confirmed catalyst. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 281.67.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 252.23 (1.39%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.54 (0.11%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- RVMD: 2 shares at 198.96, now 196.22 (-1.38%), stop 159.16, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 217.0% (skipping the last month), 21.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 750.545 (0.39%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.52 (-2.72%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% … [cut: 14,360 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "It is 16:47 ET, deep in the closing window. Code prohibits new entries after the opening buffer and restricts buys to the closing window only for overnight/multi-day holds, but the envelope and risk rules (and the specific instruction that intraday positions are closed by code) make new entries at 16:47 invalid for a multi-day hold given the lack of catalysts and the late hour. No positions in the book require exits. Cash remains $239.54."
}