Episode · the market · Nov 11, 9:46 AM

NOW: 2026-11-11T14:46Z

WOKE FOR: MARKET (P1 opportunity)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 82: QID opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 15.1 above 15.08 on 4.5× its median minute volume today; opening range 14.95-15.08.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 79: PATH opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 13 above 12.97 on 4.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 12.88-12.97.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 71: FIG opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 19 above 18.94 on 3.1× its median minute volume today; opening range 18.76-18.94.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 68: PRMB opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 23.8 above 23.77 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 23.66-23.77.
- 14:46Z setup, P1, salience 68: MMED opening-range breakout (first 15 min): closed 17.705 above 17.65 on 2.7× its median minute volume today; opening range 17.31-17.65.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $3829.42 · equity $10357.67 (+3.58%) · today +1.26% · 8 stocks, 0 options positions
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 396.51 (3.25%), stop 316.22, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 254.935 (2.44%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 195.955 (0.32%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- S: 107 shares at 23.57, now 24.325 (3.27%), stop 23.8, target 25, multi_day horizon, opened 9:46 AM ET. Thesis: Strongest setup: price above SMA20/50/200, positive 5d return, heavy volume breakout. Opening range low 22.66 provides tight stop. Reward 6% vs risk 4% (R:R > 1.2). Invalidation: Price closes below 22.66.
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 755.41 (1.08%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 51.63 (-2.59%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 142.985 (-0.51%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 358.315 (1.70%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 2/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 1/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2589.42). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 3/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $3622.27 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2589); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 755.41 (+0.36%), QQQ 684.625 (+0.86%), IWM 281.925, DIA 521.35, VIXY 17.79, TLT 80.67

SUBJECT QID
- 15.1; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PATH
- 13; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT FIG
- 19; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT PRMB
- 23.8; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

SUBJECT MMED
- 17.705; technicals: use the tools
- news: nothing in our feeds about it in the last 24 h

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-11T14:40Z] P2 review: Market is up (SPY +0.55%, QQQ +1.25%). No new setups presented in this brief. Holdings are stable. S is approaching its $25 target. No news triggers for long-term book positions. No action needed at this time.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:35Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T20:07Z] 20:07Z: Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (VTRS, EWBC, SPSM, CHTR) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits triggered. Cash $3829.51.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-10T19:12Z] Closing window (17:00-18:00 ET) is active. No new entries allowed. Observed setups (BMI, IWD, SCHM, SUPN, KNSL, HYD, GL, ET, UTHR, SPYV, FNB, VTWO, IWN, WFRD) are late-day breakouts without confirmed catalysts (news absent or unconfirmed anomalies). Book holds 8 stocks; no exits trigger… [cut: 8,281 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "All five setups (QID, PATH, FIG, PRMB, MMED) lack confirmed catalysts and show weak or negative daily trends (e.g., FIG and PATH below SMA20/50, QID below SMA200). With no news to support the breakouts and no positions in these tickers, I am not entering. Existing holdings are stable with no news triggers or stop-outs."
}