Episode · PSX · Nov 12, 9:32 AM

NOW: 2026-11-12T14:32Z

WOKE FOR: PSX (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 14:30Z price, P2, salience 65: PSX, which you hold, moved 4.47% since your last review at 248.78; stop 212.58.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $325.24 · equity $10521.39 (+5.21%) · today +0.12% · 10 stocks, 0 options positions
- KRMN: 59 shares at 44.04, now 44.56 (2.20%), stop 44.07, target 48, multi_day horizon, opened 12:45 PM ET. Thesis: KRMN closed at 44.03, breaking above its 15-min opening range high of 43.74 on 6.5× median volume. Technically, it is in a strong short-term uptrend (above SMA20/50) with a 5-day return of +28.87% and RSI 60.6. The move is supported by heavy volume and a clear technical breakout. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 43.39. Invalidation: Price closes below 43.39 (opening range low)
- MPC: 1 shares at 383.85, now 403.58 (4.95%), stop 380, target 448.67, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 148.9% (skipping the last month), 25.9% above its 200-day average Invalidation: Weekly close below 200-day average.
- PSX: 2 shares at 248.78, now 258.81 (3.76%), stop 212.58, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.2% (skipping the last month), 21.7% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- PTC: 7 shares at 195.33, now 196.09 (0.35%), stop 190.75, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 16.8% above a 50-day average 12.9% over the 200-day; 6-month 33% at 1.17% daily ATR (strength 28.2); 100% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- SCHE: 28 shares at 35.22, now 34.435 (-2.03%), stop none, target none, ? horizon. Thesis: none recorded Invalidation: none recorded
- SPY: 1 shares at 747.67, now 754.205 (0.93%), stop none, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term book: SPY at 15% of equity, held while its weekly close stays above its 200-day average: last week closed at 735.29, 0.67% vs its 200-day average 730.38. Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- U: 2 shares at 52.97, now 48.61 (-8.47%), stop 47.67, target none, TREND CORE (rules-managed: its stop trails and a close below the 50-day average sells it; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the trend), multi_day horizon, opened 10:01 AM ET. Thesis: Trend core: 21.2% above a 50-day average 34% over the 200-day; 6-month 82.8% at 5.23% daily ATR (strength 15.84); 97% of its 52-week high Invalidation: The trailing stop, or a close below the 50-day average.
- USO: 3 shares at 143.74, now 141.68 (-1.47%), stop 115.75, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 107.8% (skipping the last month), 17.8% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).
- VG: 207 shares at 12.50, now 12.77 (2.16%), stop 12.07, target 14, multi_day horizon, opened 9:52 AM ET. Thesis: VG Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates, and management raised 2026 profit outlook citing AI power demand. Price broke above the 15-min opening range high (12.49) on 10.6× median volume. Technically, it is above SMA200 (12.82) and SMA50 (13.48) is nearby; 5-day return is +4.13%. The move is supported by a T2 analyst upgrade (Deutsche Bank) and strong volume. Invalidation: Price closes below the opening range low of 12.07. Invalidation: Price closes below 12.07 (opening range low).
- VLO: 1 shares at 352.24, now 362.99 (3.12%), stop 300.25, target none, LONG-TERM BOOK (rules-managed: held for months until a week closes below its 200-day average; sell it yourself only on news that breaks the long-term case), multi_day horizon, opened 10:00 AM ET. Thesis: Long-term leader: 12-month return 160.8% (skipping the last month), 19.4% above its 200-day average Invalidation: A week closing below its 200-day average (a leader also: its trailing stop, or dropping out of the top at a month's refresh).

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET). New buys: blocked (inside the opening buffer (until 9:40 AM ET)).
- Your envelope: 6/8 entries in 24 h, 0/3 in the last hour, 3/4 open; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 6 h after a stop-out or 2 h after an exit.
- Sizing is code's: a buy risks 1% of equity at its stop (×0.75 at conviction 6, up to ×1.25 at 10), up to 25% of equity per position ($2630.35). A closer stop means more shares; leave allocation_pct null.
- Risk checks: 5/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (no intraday buys in the closing window); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $114.81 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2630); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; overnight and multi-day ones stay. Stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders, and once a position is up by its stop distance code trails its stop at that distance behind the price.

MARKET
- SPY 754.205 (-0.74%), QQQ 681.195 (-1.33%), IWM 281.52, DIA 524.66, VIXY 17.43, TLT 80.79

SUBJECT PSX
- 258.81 (bid 246.24, ask 273.54), +0.11% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
126873996919 [Nov 11, 5:37 PM ET | T3 news.google.com | offering | sev 59] A Look at Phillips 66 (PSX) After 3.2% Gain -- GF Value $181.03 vs Price $258.68 - GuruFocus (https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOS3NXTGw4eEdRTF9fem9uX3dEWVBlLWFwWjNVRllucFFTUnhmZkVZQVBQRm02djRHbjZxQnVsNHNCQmh1S0VobXdxdmUyNnl1WVA0bVQ5UlY1YjN4VzJsM0lYWXBkYU9iaXhfal9TQ0JoTU5hYXROalZCb2oyRFBoWmluZWtSaVZ3WldzTG1YSEJKWFFyU0h4UHpfbFlCWXdiU1ByU0ZNcUtTTEVo?oc=5)
bd3883e3174f [Nov 12, 12:11 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | guidance | sev 48] PBF Energy Is Now Undervalued: Is This a Strong Entry Point? (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/pbf-energy-now-undervalued-strong-entry-point)
25719fb54f80 [Nov 11, 1:21 PM ET | T2 finnhub.io | guidance | sev 48 | +1.1% since] PBF Energy Is Now Undervalued: Is This a Strong Entry Point? (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c8f284dbeb31c38e56b67d4c6515d1c82e70f3d07ab6017d3ff9b525684fe46c)
</untrusted>

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-12T13:00Z] P2 review at 08:00 ET. No new entries allowed until regular session opens (9:30 ET). All 10 holdings are within their stops and targets. Will monitor for open setups and review holdings at 09:40 ET.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-11T14:40… [cut: 9,071 characters in all]

{
  "decisions": [
    {
      "symbol": "PSX",
      "action": "hold",
      "allocation_pct": null,
      "sell_pct": null,
      "stop_loss": null,
      "take_profit": null,
      "horizon": "multi_day",
      "setup": "pullback",
      "conviction": 8,
      "rationale": "PSX is a long-term book position held for its multi-year uptrend. The thesis remains intact as the price ($259.26) is well above the 200-day average ($204.18), and no news has broken the long-term case. The position is up 4.21% from entry and far from the stop ($212.58). Short-term technicals show a pullback from the 20-day high, but the long-term trend is unaffected. No new setups are presented in the brief, and cash is low ($325.24).",
      "evidence": [
        "Price 259.26, SMA200 204.18",
        "Stop 212.58, entry 248.78",
        "No negative news for PSX in last 24h",
        "Market SPY -0.74%"
      ],
      "invalidation": "Weekly close below 200-day average ($204.18) or news breaking the long-term case.",
      "structure_id": null,
      "option": null
    }
  ],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [],
  "notes": [],
  "reply": "Holding PSX. The long-term thesis remains intact with price well above the 200-day average and no negative news. No new setups are available, and cash is low."
}