Episode · MCD · Nov 5, 10:32 AM

NOW: 2026-11-05T15:32Z

WOKE FOR: MCD (P2 review)

OBSERVATIONS
- 15:31Z watch, P2, salience 80: Your watch fired: MCD below 280.19. Your note: MCD breakout setup. Watch for retest of 280.19 (OR high) or further upside. No news catalyst found in last 24h.

YOUR BOOK (the paper account: your decisions trade it; started with $10,000)
cash $9896.37 · equity $9896.37 (-1.04%) · today +0% · 0 stocks, 0 options positions
- no stock positions

LIMITS (enforced by code)
- Market: the regular session. New buys: allowed.
- Your envelope: 1/4 entries in 24 h, 0/2 in the last hour, 0/4 open; $990 more can be committed this hour; an entry is 50% of what the risk checks allow; one action per ticker per 30 min; no re-entry for 24 h after a stop-out or 6 h after an exit.
- Risk checks: at most 25% of equity per position ($2474.09); 0/8 positions; conviction ≥ 6/10 (≥ 8 for an overnight buy in the closing window, and none intraday then); price ≥ $5; stop 0.4-10% below the price (default 2.5%); reward:risk ≥ 1.2; no rebuy within 15 min of a sale; $9698.44 deployable cash.
- Options: open premium $0 of the 25% of equity cap ($2474); at most 4% of equity per position; 0/6 positions; conviction ≥ 7; long calls and puts, call and put debit spreads; buy |delta| 0.25-0.7, 7-45 days to expiration; contracts only from an option_menu result in this episode; exits default to -60% / +150% of the position's value, and code closes positions before expiration.
- Intraday stock positions are closed by code in the last minutes of the session; stops and targets rest at the broker as bracket or OCO orders.

MARKET
- SPY 748.46 (-0.96%), QQQ 660.835 (-4.3%), IWM 278.13, DIA 525.61, VIXY 19.25, TLT 81.65

SUBJECT MCD
- 279.985 (bid 265.87, ask 295.51), -0.08% today; technicals: use the tools
- news in our feeds, last 24 h, most severe first:
<untrusted source="wire">
feb23df2ced0 [Nov 5, 10:09 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 64 | -0.4% since] McDonald's Q3 26 Earnings Conference Call At 8:30 AM ET (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mcdonalds-q3-26-earnings-conference-call-8-30-am-et)
6219cdb03c6a [Nov 5, 10:09 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 64 | -0.4% since] McDonald's (MCD) Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mcdonalds-mcd-beats-q3-earnings-estimates)
b6e4b49ff913 [Nov 5, 10:09 AM ET | T2 nasdaq.com | earnings | sev 64 | -0.4% since] McDonald's (MCD) Q3 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mcdonalds-mcd-q3-earnings-how-key-metrics-compare-wall-street-estimates)
</untrusted>

YOUR NOTES
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T21:10Z] Market closed higher (SPY +1.48%). No positions held. Ready for tomorrow's open to look for setups.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T20:40Z] Closing window (20:40Z). All intraday positions (BUG, SNX) will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (3/4 in 24h, 0/2 in last hour, but closing window rules and prior fullness apply). No new entries.
- [MARKET, 2026-11-04T16:19Z] Closing window (16:18Z). All intraday positions will be closed by code. No new entries permitted by envelope (4/4 in 24h).
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T16:53Z] Closing window. All setups are opening-range breakouts with no fundamental catalysts. No new entries. Positions closed by code if any existed (none held).
- [MARKET, 2026-11-03T16:28Z] Closing window (16:28Z). All setups are opening-range breakouts occurring after 16:15Z with no fundamental catalysts (CAH, PODD, HYMB, EGP, CAG, ED) or only minor anomalies (CR, CTAS). Conviction is low due to lack of news and the closing window environment. No new entries. Positions will be closed by code if any existed (none held).

YOUR WATCHES
- 3660af25-b700-4bd3-b441-bd87fc7128b8: NVD below 4.89, until 2026-11-06T15:07Z. Note: NVD breakout setup. Watch for retest of 4.89 (OR high). No news catalyst found in last 24h.
- 4df43c6f-1ba5-489a-8a55-70cd6675cc83: PAYC below 255.03, until 2026-11-06T15:07Z. Note: PAYC breakout setup. Watch for retest of 255.03 (OR high). Earnings reported Nov 4, 8-K filed. Anomaly noted.

{
  "decisions": [],
  "watches": [],
  "cancel_watches": [
    "4df43c6f-1ba5-489a-8a55-70cd6675cc83"
  ],
  "notes": [
    {
      "subject": "MCD",
      "text": "Watch fired below 280.19; price (279.98) holds below OR high (280.92) and VWAP (280.08). Earnings mixed: EPS beat ($3.57 vs $3.36) but revenue missed and US sales declined (-0.2%). Market weak (QQQ -4.3%). RSI 78.8 (overbought). No follow-through on earnings beat. Flat hold preferred. Cancel PAYC watch (missed trigger)."
    }
  ],
  "reply": "MCD watch fired below 280.19, but price remains below the opening range high (280.92) and VWAP (280.08) with mixed earnings (EPS beat, revenue miss, weak US sales) and a weak market. No entry. Cancelled PAYC watch as it missed its trigger."
}